The Consequences of ISIS’s Collapse for the Reconfiguration of the Regional Order and the Strengthening of the Axis of Resistance

Abstract

The collapse of the self-proclaimed caliphate structure of the terrorist group ISIS in Iraq and Syria constitutes one of the most fundamental and consequential developments in Middle Eastern geopolitics in recent decades. This transformation not only signifies the termination of a major security threat at both regional and global levels, but also marks the beginning of a new reconfiguration of the regional order, creating the conditions for the emergence of novel dynamics in interactions among diverse actors. The necessity of conducting the present research arises from the fact that the disintegration of ISIS represents not merely a military defeat for takfiri extremist movements, but rather a profound transformation with multilayered political, security, and strategic consequences that has significantly altered the regional balance of power and generated new opportunities for certain regional actors, particularly the Axis of Resistance. Accordingly, the principal objective of this study is to examine and analyze the multidimensional impacts of ISIS’s collapse on the reconstruction of the region’s geopolitical order and to elucidate the manner in which the position of the Axis of Resistance has been enhanced within the emerging power equations of the Middle East. This research employs a descriptive–analytical method and is grounded in the theoretical framework of neorealism to investigate these consequences. The findings indicate that the destruction of the ISIS caliphate not only weakened the role and cohesion of the Western–Arab coalition in the region, but also strengthened the geopolitical position of the Islamic Republic of Iran, expanded the influence of Shiite resistance groups, and disrupted the previous balance of power in favor of the Axis of Resistance. These transformations, particularly in operational and security domains, have been reflected in phenomena such as increased divergence within traditional alliances, revisions of regional states’ security strategies, and the redefinition of geopolitical priorities and red lines by major powers. Collectively, these developments have ushered the Middle East into a new phase of strategic transformation in which competition for influence and impact is more closely tied than ever to indigenous, ideological, and resistance-oriented components.